Executive Summary

Q4 2024 revenue grew 4.7% year over year to $976.1M, while AFFO rose 5.4% to $601.3M; diluted EPS declined to $0.58 on a macro-driven CECL allowance increase, which management highlighted as non-cash and primarily model-driven .
2025 AFFO guidance initiated at $2.455–$2.485B ($2.32–$2.35 per diluted share), implying ~3.3% AFFO/share growth at the midpoint; guidance excludes unannounced transactions and variable development draw timing .
Strategic pipeline expanded: $300M mezzanine loan into One Beverly Hills with Cain/Eldridge, plus continued PPGF funding at The Venetian; tenants announced nearly $1B in reinvestments in VICI’s real estate since Q4 .
Balance sheet resilience: Moody’s upgraded VICI to Baa3 in Nov-2024; total liquidity of ~$3.25B and LQA net leverage of 5.3x, with a new $2.5B multicurrency revolver post-quarter .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

AFFO growth and stable per-share trajectory: Q4 AFFO increased 5.4% YoY to $601.3M; AFFO/share was $0.57, up from $0.55 in Q4 2023 .
Strategic relationships and capital deployment: Initiated Cain/Eldridge partnership with $300M One Beverly Hills mezz loan; continued PPGF with The Venetian (up to $700M; $400M drawn in 2024 driving incremental rent at 7.25% yield) .
Management tone on experiential demand and Las Vegas strength: “Las Vegas tourism continues to hit records,” and operators announced ~$1B reinvestment into VICI properties, reinforcing embedded growth .

What Went Wrong

EPS decline on CECL: Diluted EPS fell to $0.58 vs $0.72 YoY; the aggregate change in CECL allowance YoY was ~$158M, driving the decline in GAAP net income/FFO despite strong underlying operations .
Limited large-scale real estate acquisition flow in 2024: Management noted 2024 lacked plentiful high-quality acquisition opportunities; pivoted toward development funding and embedded growth with partners .
Estimates comparison unavailable: Wall Street consensus via S&P Global was unavailable at time of retrieval, constraining beat/miss assessment against sell-side expectations (S&P Global retrieval limit) [GetEstimates error]*.

Financial Results

Metric	Q4 2023	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Total Revenues ($USD Millions)	$931.865	$957.003	$964.669	$976.052
Diluted EPS ($USD)	$0.72	$0.71	$0.70	$0.58
Net Income Attributable to Common Stockholders ($USD Millions)	$747.769	$741.302	$732.898	$614.594
AFFO ($USD Millions)	$570.414	$592.425	$593.858	$601.339
AFFO per Share ($USD)	$0.55	$0.57	$0.57	$0.57

Notes: YoY revenue +4.7%; YoY AFFO +5.4%; YoY diluted EPS declined on CECL allowance increase .

Segment/Revenue Detail – Sales-Type Leases (Quarterly)

Lease	Q4 2023 ($M)	Q3 2024 ($M)	Q4 2024 ($M)
Caesars Regional & Joliet	$136.067	$137.624	$137.667
Caesars Las Vegas Master	$116.076	$117.305	$121.671
MGM Grand/Mandalay Bay	$77.468	$79.018	$79.018
Venetian Resort Las Vegas	$64.375	$68.118	$70.838
Income Adj (Non-cash)	$61.751	$65.782	$63.900
Total Income from Sales-Type Leases	$506.217	$518.691	$524.691

Segment/Revenue Detail – Lease Financing Receivables (Quarterly)

Lease	Q4 2023 ($M)	Q3 2024 ($M)	Q4 2024 ($M)
MGM Master Lease	$186.150	$189.873	$189.873
Harrah’s NOLA/AC/Laughlin	$43.974	$44.477	$43.948
Hard Rock Mirage	$22.500	$22.950	$22.950
JACK Master	$17.511	$17.772	$17.772
Lucky Strike Master	$6.371	$7.900	$8.032
Chelsea Piers	$0.903	$6.000	$6.000
Income Adj (Non-cash)	$70.072	$70.162	$71.037
Income from Lease Financing Receivables	$370.716	$382.868	$383.165

KPIs and Balance Sheet Snapshot (As of 12/31/2024)

KPI	Value
Adjusted EBITDA Q4 ($USD Millions)	$785.799
LQA Net Leverage Ratio	5.3x
Total Debt ($USD Millions, face)	$17,098.846
Cash & Equivalents ($USD Millions)	$524.615
Occupancy Rate	100%
Weighted Avg Lease Term	40.7 years
Annualized Dividend/Share	$1.73
Equity Market Cap ($USD Millions)	$31,237.797

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
AFFO ($USD Billions)	FY 2025	n/a	$2.455–$2.485	Initiated
AFFO per diluted share ($USD)	FY 2025	n/a	$2.32–$2.35	Initiated
Weighted Avg Share Count (Millions)	FY 2025	n/a	1,056.9	Initiated
Dividend (Annualized)	Run-rate	$1.66 (Q2/Q3 2024)	$1.73 (Q4 2024)	Raised

Notes: Guidance excludes impact from unclosed transactions and variable draw schedules; per-share guidance reflects pending forward equity under treasury stock method . Dividend increase was executed in Q3, reflected in Q4 annualized rate .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q2 & Q3 2024)	Current Period (Q4 2024)	Trend
Development funding vs. acquisitions	Q2: Announced $700M PPGF at Venetian; $250M Great Wolf mezz loan . Q3: Deployed $230M; updated 2024 guidance	2024 lacked plentiful high-quality acquisition flow; pivot to development funding and embedded growth with partners	Mix shifting to development funding
Las Vegas demand & tenant reinvestment	Strong Las Vegas exposure; partner growth initiatives	“Las Vegas tourism continues to hit records,” ~$1B reinvestments announced by operators since Q4	Strengthening
CECL allowance volatility	CECL noted in prior periods (quarterly changes)	Q4 EPS/FFO impacted by macro scenario inputs (higher-for-longer rates/tariffs) per Moody’s model	Volatile/Model-driven
Capital markets & liquidity	Forward equity settlements; notes issuance; cash/liquidity reported	New $2.5B multicurrency revolver; Moody’s upgrade to Baa3; ~$3.25B liquidity	Improving flexibility
Strategic partnerships	PPGF (Venetian), Great Wolf ESC	New Cain/Eldridge partnership; $300M One Beverly Hills mezz loan	Expanding
Pipeline & competitive landscape	Broadening beyond gaming into experiential	Wide funnel in 2025; competition persistent but relationships differentiate	Active/widening

Management Commentary

“We announced our first large-scale Partner Property Growth Fund transaction with The Venetian Resort Las Vegas, in which we agreed to invest up to $700.0 million of capital in exchange for incremental rent added to our existing lease.” — CEO Edward Pitoniak .
“Las Vegas tourism also continues to hit records… our operators have announced nearly $1 billion of investments in our real estate.” — President & COO John Payne .
“AFFO per share was $0.57 for the quarter… our margins continue to run strong in the high 90% range when eliminating noncash items.” — CFO David Kieske .
“We did not see anything resembling a plentiful flow of compelling high-quality real estate acquisition opportunities [in 2024]… highly compelling, high-quality developments were there.” — CEO Edward Pitoniak .

Q&A Highlights

Development funding vs. acquisitions: Management emphasized scarce acquisition opportunities in 2024, prioritizing development funding with strong yields and high-quality partners (Homefield, Great Wolf, Venetian) .
Venetian PPGF draw: $400M drawn in 2024 and embedded in rent; optional $300M remains undrawn and is not in guidance .
CECL drivers: CECL allowance increase driven by macroeconomic scenarios (higher-for-longer rates, tariff risks) from Moody’s model; non-cash, not tenant-specific .
Forward equity mechanics: Typical 1-year contracts extended; treasury stock method used in guidance; forward equity aligns funding with potential acquisitions .
M&A environment: Las Vegas assets performing strongly and unlikely to trade; regional investments require precision given new supply/competition .
New York licensing: Ongoing progress; timeline uncertain; Empire City bid robust, but outcomes and slot-only implications remain to be seen .

Estimates Context

Wall Street consensus via S&P Global was unavailable at the time of retrieval due to an API rate limit, so we cannot quantify beat/miss versus consensus for Q4 2024 revenue, EPS, or FFO/AFFO [GetEstimates error]*.
Based on company-reported figures, Q4 revenue and AFFO grew YoY, while GAAP EPS/FFO declined on non-cash CECL modeling impacts, which suggests estimates may need to incorporate CECL macro sensitivity and tenant reinvestment-driven rent growth .

*Values/availability note: Estimates retrieval failed; comparisons to consensus could not be performed. Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Underlying rent growth and AFFO momentum: Q4 AFFO and revenue rose YoY despite CECL-driven GAAP noise; embedded rent escalators and partner reinvestments (Venetian, MGM, Caesars) support 2025 growth .
2025 setup is constructive: AFFO/share guidance midpoint implies ~3.3% growth; guidance excludes optional $300M Venetian draw and any unannounced deals, providing upside levers .
Balance sheet flexibility: ~$3.25B liquidity and investment-grade ratings across agencies mitigate refinancing/maturity risk (new revolver; diversified unsecured complex) .
Strategic expansion beyond gaming: Cain/Eldridge partnership opens access to differentiated experiential developments (Aman-led One Beverly Hills) and broader pipeline; expect more non-gaming experiential capital deployment .
Watch CECL variability: Expect continued quarter-to-quarter CECL allowance swings tied to macro scenarios; focus on AFFO/Adjusted EBITDA as operational proxies .
Tenant capex is a tailwind: ~$1B reinvestments announced since Q4 enhance property performance and variable/base rent mechanics in several leases (Venetian PPGF rent at 7.25% yield; CPI-linked escalators) .
Tactical catalysts: Potential Venetian incremental draw, continued ESC fundings (Great Wolf, Canyon Ranch), Caesars Forum call right window opening (Sep-2025) could add assets/rent at attractive yields .

Additional Relevant Q4 2024 Press Releases

Moody’s upgrade to Baa3 (Nov-18-2024) [12: Doc list shows item; upgrade referenced in earnings materials] .
Dividend increase to $0.4325 (Dec-5-2024) [14: press release summary referenced; details in Q3/Q4 materials] .
$750M senior notes due 2031 (Dec-19-2024) [12: press release; issuance and rate referenced in Q4 release] .
IGP/PURE master lease amendment (Dec-10-2024) .

Sources:

Q4 2024 earnings press release and supplemental (Ex 99.1 and Ex 99.2) .
Q4 2024 earnings call transcript (Feb-21-2025) .
Prior quarters (Q2 & Q3 2024) press releases .

VICI PROPERTIES INC. (VICI)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary